# Populationforecast 2017-2040 *[BEEPROG]*

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Lars Pedersen, LARP@stat.gl

5/15/2017

Persons

årligt

9/16/2017

1/11/2012

Yes

Statistics Greenland

BEXPROG

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### Obs:

### version

#### 2015

August 16th 2016. We have a problem with base data for the 2015-projections. Please use the 2016 version
See footnotes for description of assumptions

Fertility

Total fertility rate: 2,269 (2,305 for women born in Greenland)

The total fertility rate is expected to fall to 2,187 (2,273 for women born in Greenland) over 10 years, then the level Assumed to remain constant.

Mortality Mortality is calculated based on experience in the following years: 2007,2008,2009,2010,2011

expectancy men: 68.3 (67.1 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 73.0 (72.7 - born in Greenland)

Mortality Level is expected to Fall steadily over the next 25 years.

To:

Life expectancy men: 73.0 (72.0 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 77.6 (77.3 - born in Greenland)

wanderings

Number year: 10 (2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011)

Number of immigrants in total: 22113: Men: 12095: Women: 10018

Number emigrated total: 25799: Men: 13885: Women: 11914

Number of net migrants in total: -3686: Men: -1790: Women: -1896

Number of net migrants per year: -368.60: Men: -179.00: Women: -189.6

Fertility

Total fertility rate: 2,203 (2,228 for women born in Greenland)

The total fertility rate is expected to fall to 2,103 (2,124 for women born in Greenland) over 10 years, then the level Assumed to remain constant.

Mortality Mortality is calculated based on experience in the following years: 2008,2009,2010,2011,2012

expectancy men: 68.6 (67.5 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 73.1 (72.9 - born in Greenland)

Mortality Level is expected to Fall steadily over the next 25 years.

To:

Life expectancy men: 73.0 (72.0 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 77.6 (77.3 - born in Greenland)

wanderings

Number year: 10 (2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012)

Number of immigrants in total: 22240: Men: 12154: Women: 10086

Number emigrated total: 26313: Men: 14168: Women: 12145

Number of net migrants in total: -4073: Men: -2014: Women: -2059

Number of net migrants per year: -407: Men: -201 : Women: -206

Fertility

Total fertility rate: 2,164 (2,228 for women born in Greenland)

The total fertility rate is expected to fall to 2,103 (2,124 for women born in Greenland) over 10 years, then the level Assumed to remain constant.

Mortality Mortality is calculated based on experience in the following years: 2008,2009,2010,2011,2012

expectancy men: 68.6 (67.5 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 73.1 (72.9 - born in Greenland)

Mortality Level is expected to Fall steadily over the next 25 years.

To:

Life expectancy men: 73.0 (72.0 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 77.6 (77.3 - born in Greenland)

wanderings

Number year: 10 (2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012)

Number of immigrants in total: 22240: Men: 12154: Women: 10086

Number emigrated total: 26313: Men: 14168: Women: 12145

Number of net migrants in total: -4073: Men: -2014: Women: -2059

Number of net migrants per year: -407: Men: -201 : Women: -206

Fertility

Total fertility rate: 2,091 (2,120 for women born in Greenland)

The total fertility rate is expected to fall to 1,998 (2,024 for women born in Greenland) over 10 years, then the level Assumed to remain constant.

Mortality Mortality is calculated based on experience in the following years: 2010,2011,2012,2013,2014

expectancy men: 69.07 (67.83 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 74.23 (72.97 - born in Greenland)

Mortality Level is expected to Fall steadily over the next 25 years.

To:

Life expectancy men: 74.23 (72.97 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 78.23 (78.02 - born in Greenland)

wanderings

Number year:10 (2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014)

Number of immigrants in total:23601:Men:13184:Women:10417

Number of emmigrants in total:28147:Men:15463:Women:12684

Number of netmigrants in total:-4546:Men:-2279:Women:-2267

Average nettoindvandrede pr år:-454,60:Mænd:-227,90:Kvinder:-226,70

Antal indvandrede ialt:9424:Mænd:4480:Kvinder:4944

Antal udvandrede ialt:13755:Mænd:6553:Kvinder:7202

Antal nettoindvandrede ialt:-4331:Mænd:-2073:Kvinder:-2258

Gennemsnitligt antal nettoindvandrede pr år:-433,10:Mænd:-207,30:Kvinder:-225,80

Fertility

The total fertility rate is expected to rise to 2,133 (2,178 for women born in Greenland) over 10 years, then the level Assumed to remain constant.

Dødelighed beregnes udfra erfaringer i følgende år:

Mortality Mortality is calculated based on experience in the following years: 2011,2012,2013,2014,2015

Life expectancy women: 74.18 (73.77 - born in Greenland)

To:

Life expectancy men: 74.78 (73.71 - born in Greenland)

Life expectancy women: 78.77 (78.42 - born in Greenland)

Migrations

Number of immigrants in total:23273:Men:12978:Women:10295

Number of emmigrants in total:27876:Men:15155:Women:12721

Number of netmigrants in total:-4603:Men:-2177:Women:-2426

Average annual netmigrants:-460,30:Men:-217,70:Women:-242,60

Number of immigrants in total:9671:Men:4613:Women:5058

Number of emmigrants in total:14069:Men:6574:Women:7395

Number of netmigrants in total:-4398:Men:-2061:Women:-2337

Average annual netmigrants:-439,80:Men:-206,10:Women:-233,70

### version

#### 2012

AssumptionsFertility

Total fertility rate: 2,269 (2,305 for women born in Greenland)

The total fertility rate is expected to fall to 2,187 (2,273 for women born in Greenland) over 10 years, then the level Assumed to remain constant.

Mortality Mortality is calculated based on experience in the following years: 2007,2008,2009,2010,2011

expectancy men: 68.3 (67.1 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 73.0 (72.7 - born in Greenland)

Mortality Level is expected to Fall steadily over the next 25 years.

To:

Life expectancy men: 73.0 (72.0 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 77.6 (77.3 - born in Greenland)

wanderings

Number year: 10 (2002,2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011)

Number of immigrants in total: 22113: Men: 12095: Women: 10018

Number emigrated total: 25799: Men: 13885: Women: 11914

Number of net migrants in total: -3686: Men: -1790: Women: -1896

Number of net migrants per year: -368.60: Men: -179.00: Women: -189.6

#### 2013

AssumptionsFertility

Total fertility rate: 2,203 (2,228 for women born in Greenland)

The total fertility rate is expected to fall to 2,103 (2,124 for women born in Greenland) over 10 years, then the level Assumed to remain constant.

Mortality Mortality is calculated based on experience in the following years: 2008,2009,2010,2011,2012

expectancy men: 68.6 (67.5 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 73.1 (72.9 - born in Greenland)

Mortality Level is expected to Fall steadily over the next 25 years.

To:

Life expectancy men: 73.0 (72.0 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 77.6 (77.3 - born in Greenland)

wanderings

Number year: 10 (2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012)

Number of immigrants in total: 22240: Men: 12154: Women: 10086

Number emigrated total: 26313: Men: 14168: Women: 12145

Number of net migrants in total: -4073: Men: -2014: Women: -2059

Number of net migrants per year: -407: Men: -201 : Women: -206

#### 2014

AssumptionsFertility

Total fertility rate: 2,164 (2,228 for women born in Greenland)

The total fertility rate is expected to fall to 2,103 (2,124 for women born in Greenland) over 10 years, then the level Assumed to remain constant.

Mortality Mortality is calculated based on experience in the following years: 2008,2009,2010,2011,2012

expectancy men: 68.6 (67.5 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 73.1 (72.9 - born in Greenland)

Mortality Level is expected to Fall steadily over the next 25 years.

To:

Life expectancy men: 73.0 (72.0 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 77.6 (77.3 - born in Greenland)

wanderings

Number year: 10 (2003,2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012)

Number of immigrants in total: 22240: Men: 12154: Women: 10086

Number emigrated total: 26313: Men: 14168: Women: 12145

Number of net migrants in total: -4073: Men: -2014: Women: -2059

Number of net migrants per year: -407: Men: -201 : Women: -206

#### 2015

AssumptionsFertility

Total fertility rate: 2,091 (2,120 for women born in Greenland)

The total fertility rate is expected to fall to 1,998 (2,024 for women born in Greenland) over 10 years, then the level Assumed to remain constant.

Mortality Mortality is calculated based on experience in the following years: 2010,2011,2012,2013,2014

expectancy men: 69.07 (67.83 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 74.23 (72.97 - born in Greenland)

Mortality Level is expected to Fall steadily over the next 25 years.

To:

Life expectancy men: 74.23 (72.97 - born in Greenland)

expectancy women: 78.23 (78.02 - born in Greenland)

wanderings

Number year:10 (2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014)

#### 2015

Population:Number of immigrants in total:23601:Men:13184:Women:10417

Number of emmigrants in total:28147:Men:15463:Women:12684

Number of netmigrants in total:-4546:Men:-2279:Women:-2267

Average nettoindvandrede pr år:-454,60:Mænd:-227,90:Kvinder:-226,70

#### 2015

Født i Grønland:Antal indvandrede ialt:9424:Mænd:4480:Kvinder:4944

Antal udvandrede ialt:13755:Mænd:6553:Kvinder:7202

Antal nettoindvandrede ialt:-4331:Mænd:-2073:Kvinder:-2258

Gennemsnitligt antal nettoindvandrede pr år:-433,10:Mænd:-207,30:Kvinder:-225,80

#### 2016

AssumptionsFertility

#### 2016

Total fertility rate: 2,064 (2,108 for women born in Greenland)The total fertility rate is expected to rise to 2,133 (2,178 for women born in Greenland) over 10 years, then the level Assumed to remain constant.

#### 2016

DødelighedDødelighed beregnes udfra erfaringer i følgende år:

#### 2016

Mortality Mortality is calculated based on experience in the following years: 2011,2012,2013,2014,2015

#### 2016

Life expectancy men: 69.80 (68.66 - born in Greenland)Life expectancy women: 74.18 (73.77 - born in Greenland)

#### 2016

Mortality Level is expected to fall steadily over the next 25 years.To:

Life expectancy men: 74.78 (73.71 - born in Greenland)

Life expectancy women: 78.77 (78.42 - born in Greenland)

#### 2016

Migrations

#### 2016

Number of years:10 (2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015)#### 2016

All population:Number of immigrants in total:23273:Men:12978:Women:10295

Number of emmigrants in total:27876:Men:15155:Women:12721

Number of netmigrants in total:-4603:Men:-2177:Women:-2426

Average annual netmigrants:-460,30:Men:-217,70:Women:-242,60

#### 2016

Born in Greenland:Number of immigrants in total:9671:Men:4613:Women:5058

Number of emmigrants in total:14069:Men:6574:Women:7395

Number of netmigrants in total:-4398:Men:-2061:Women:-2337

Average annual netmigrants:-439,80:Men:-206,10:Women:-233,70