Population projections 2025

Published April 24th, 2025

The Future Population

Key Results

Entire Country

The population projection presents the results of model-based calculations which, using Greenland’s population estimatees by sex and age as of January 1, 2025, and historical trends, describe possible development scenarios towards 2050.

According to the Main Alternative, the number of people who are both born and living in Greenland is expected to decline by one fifth by 2050.

As with the other scenarios, only the part of the population that is both born and residing in Greenland is projected. The segment of the population born outside of Greenland is assumed to remain constant over the projection period, with the same sex and age distribution as in 2025.

Tabel 1. Befolkningsregnskab
udvalgte år
	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040	2045	2049
Primo året	56.080	56.542	54.833	52.721	50.466	48.223	46.486
Født i Grønland	50.192	49.738	48.029	45.917	43.662	41.419	39.682
Levendefødte	835	738	650	574	541	513	500
Dødsfald	496	502	526	533	540	523	498
Udvandrede	957	1.215	1.171	1.106	1.026	974	921
Indvandrede	790	659	639	629	570	549	508
Født i Danmark/Færøerne	4.537	4.150	4.150	4.150	4.150	4.150	4.150
Født udenfor Rigsfællesskabet	1.351	2.654	2.654	2.654	2.654	2.654	2.654
Ultimo året	56.252	56.222	54.425	52.285	50.011	47.788	46.075

See table in StatBank Greenland

The large cohorts from the 1960s will in the coming years reach ages with higher mortality, though this is expected to be lower than for earlier birth cohorts. The average age of the population will increase from 35.7 in 2025 to 39.7 in 2050.

While around 800 children were born annually ten years ago, fewer than 600 births per year are expected in ten years due to continued low fertility.

Due to opposing trends for children and the elderly, the demographic dependency ratio is expected to remain similar to what has been observed over the past 40 years.

See table in StatBank Greenland